Precise estimates of financial variables, making money by betting on sports, a Fed that can control inflation to a narrow target, and other articles of faith
More young professionals had roommates in the 80s and 90s than now, IMO. “Friends” wasn’t about a bunch of acquaintances all living in doorman singles. The families of young professionals are richer due to asset price inflation and they keep their kids “on the payroll” for longer. I am just wondering if there has been a marked change in preferences toward singles rather than shared space (a 2 bed walk up often slept 4- one in dining room, one in sun room or partitioned living room) over the decades that has pushed up prices?
Or maybe as crime fell in the late 1990s into the 2000s more families stayed in NY and pushed up the prices of the bigger units, making sharing unattractive? IDK
I think of my now wife living with three other women in a roach-infested walk-up (all the women hailing from professional families, having professional jobs and having graduated from good schools) in the 1980s and have a hard time imagining the current crop of kids of that ilk doing the same (some still do sure, but not the norm). Of course, the women of that bygone era wouldn’t be buying the shoes and handbags and other must haves the current ilk sport.
Essentially, people are richer and spending more, studios are desirable and so demand and pricing is higher? Just a theory
"And it’s remarkable we restrict or discourage risk in every other walk of life—like moving states or starting a business. "
I generally agree that as a society we discourage risk in the USA, but I'm unaware of how we discourage moving states or starting a business? Can you elaborate on your reference here?
I think you have a great point here: "young ambitious people looking to acquire career and social capital." A physical move to NYC as an alternative to University or Grad School could easily be seen a rationally better investment of time and money.
Interesting material as always. Long time listener, first time caller.
I understand why you call gambling zero sum. But you also correctly note earlier that it adds entertainment value. I think that effect is significant. I know about 15-20 frequent sports gamblers personally and their primary reason for doing it is to add some action to an event they might not otherwise find entertaining. None are addicts, though I know that is a problem.
I then look at the spending habits of my other friends, and I have a hard time saying my gambling friends are more irresponsible. I'd say my most typical friend lives in a tier 1 city, makes $300-500k per year (1.5x combined if married), and spends *way* too much on dining, travel, entertainment and housing. I know one couple that has a combined $800k income raising one child in a two-bedroom in NYC, and basically lives paycheck to paycheck. They've been eyeing a $30k Swedish mattress for six months and I'm the last person standing between them and that purchase. Aside from the sticker cost, I can only imagine the value of the lost time obsessing over such a thing.
So I'll support regulation of gambling when regulators also want to block that Swedish mattress boutique in Soho from feeding my friends' habit.
More young professionals had roommates in the 80s and 90s than now, IMO. “Friends” wasn’t about a bunch of acquaintances all living in doorman singles. The families of young professionals are richer due to asset price inflation and they keep their kids “on the payroll” for longer. I am just wondering if there has been a marked change in preferences toward singles rather than shared space (a 2 bed walk up often slept 4- one in dining room, one in sun room or partitioned living room) over the decades that has pushed up prices?
Or maybe as crime fell in the late 1990s into the 2000s more families stayed in NY and pushed up the prices of the bigger units, making sharing unattractive? IDK
I think of my now wife living with three other women in a roach-infested walk-up (all the women hailing from professional families, having professional jobs and having graduated from good schools) in the 1980s and have a hard time imagining the current crop of kids of that ilk doing the same (some still do sure, but not the norm). Of course, the women of that bygone era wouldn’t be buying the shoes and handbags and other must haves the current ilk sport.
Essentially, people are richer and spending more, studios are desirable and so demand and pricing is higher? Just a theory
"And it’s remarkable we restrict or discourage risk in every other walk of life—like moving states or starting a business. "
I generally agree that as a society we discourage risk in the USA, but I'm unaware of how we discourage moving states or starting a business? Can you elaborate on your reference here?
I think you have a great point here: "young ambitious people looking to acquire career and social capital." A physical move to NYC as an alternative to University or Grad School could easily be seen a rationally better investment of time and money.
Interesting material as always. Long time listener, first time caller.
I understand why you call gambling zero sum. But you also correctly note earlier that it adds entertainment value. I think that effect is significant. I know about 15-20 frequent sports gamblers personally and their primary reason for doing it is to add some action to an event they might not otherwise find entertaining. None are addicts, though I know that is a problem.
I then look at the spending habits of my other friends, and I have a hard time saying my gambling friends are more irresponsible. I'd say my most typical friend lives in a tier 1 city, makes $300-500k per year (1.5x combined if married), and spends *way* too much on dining, travel, entertainment and housing. I know one couple that has a combined $800k income raising one child in a two-bedroom in NYC, and basically lives paycheck to paycheck. They've been eyeing a $30k Swedish mattress for six months and I'm the last person standing between them and that purchase. Aside from the sticker cost, I can only imagine the value of the lost time obsessing over such a thing.
So I'll support regulation of gambling when regulators also want to block that Swedish mattress boutique in Soho from feeding my friends' habit.