In the early 1980s, I managed (with mixed feelings) to bringing family policy into the tax code. The genesis was the almost accidental discovery that households with children had faced by far the larger tax increases in the postwar era…which then grabbed Reagan’ attention. The argument didn’t depend on trying to subsidize one group or the other but on a basic public finance principle now almost totally ignored: ability to pay. Resurrecting that attention to this principle would go a long way toward addressing how family Poliy might again receive the amount and TYPE of attention it deserves. Too much to put into a comment.
Consols are like the financial version of a time capsule except instead of burying something cool, we’re just passing down a century of debt. Great for pension funds, maybe, but in a world where economic cycles barely last a decade, betting on 100-year bonds feels like trying to predict the weather in 2125. Bold move.
Allison, that was a great post! And I rarely reply to Substacks. Jim Bianco recently had some sort of webinar re: duration and what US allies might or might not pick up. So the conversation is out there and I'm hopeful. We're at least talking about some type of debt solution on some level. PS Agree with your singledom thoughts. Being single all my life I start to look back and ask...really? Maybe it's just age lol. Have a good one and keep them coming! Thanks, Harvey.
Was also thinking lately about a geopolitical risk in the debt markets that might be related. What if foreign policy, or lack of it from the US, spurs allies and their institutions to rethink their Treasury purchases? Not reflected in prices but it just strikes me as a risk not many are talking about. Are we going to wake up one day to find the world's non US pension funds on a Treasury strike? Anyway, just thinking out loud and thanks for listening lol.
In the early 1980s, I managed (with mixed feelings) to bringing family policy into the tax code. The genesis was the almost accidental discovery that households with children had faced by far the larger tax increases in the postwar era…which then grabbed Reagan’ attention. The argument didn’t depend on trying to subsidize one group or the other but on a basic public finance principle now almost totally ignored: ability to pay. Resurrecting that attention to this principle would go a long way toward addressing how family Poliy might again receive the amount and TYPE of attention it deserves. Too much to put into a comment.
Consols are like the financial version of a time capsule except instead of burying something cool, we’re just passing down a century of debt. Great for pension funds, maybe, but in a world where economic cycles barely last a decade, betting on 100-year bonds feels like trying to predict the weather in 2125. Bold move.
Allison, that was a great post! And I rarely reply to Substacks. Jim Bianco recently had some sort of webinar re: duration and what US allies might or might not pick up. So the conversation is out there and I'm hopeful. We're at least talking about some type of debt solution on some level. PS Agree with your singledom thoughts. Being single all my life I start to look back and ask...really? Maybe it's just age lol. Have a good one and keep them coming! Thanks, Harvey.
Thanks, Harvey!! I want to get in on this conversation. Glad it is happening.
Was also thinking lately about a geopolitical risk in the debt markets that might be related. What if foreign policy, or lack of it from the US, spurs allies and their institutions to rethink their Treasury purchases? Not reflected in prices but it just strikes me as a risk not many are talking about. Are we going to wake up one day to find the world's non US pension funds on a Treasury strike? Anyway, just thinking out loud and thanks for listening lol.