Great insights Allison. I would also note the following: Tesla may benefit from government subsidies, but then so does the O&G industries. Also, we do a terrible job of pricing "externalities". If all the costs of a particular industry were fully reflected in the end product cost, then maybe the "free market" could function properly.
i am not sure if it is exponential. it depends on the nature of volatility and how your dampen it. sometimes you truly make risk smaller without increasing tail risk.
Thank you, appreciate your clear-headed insights!
Yes, I like the ease-of-use for Substack, too. Especially for embedding graphics & video.
Great insights Allison. I would also note the following: Tesla may benefit from government subsidies, but then so does the O&G industries. Also, we do a terrible job of pricing "externalities". If all the costs of a particular industry were fully reflected in the end product cost, then maybe the "free market" could function properly.
Thanks for sharing, great insights as per usual Allison!
How does Taleb's claim that dampening volatility over time increases tail risk exponentially fit into your model, if at all?
i am not sure if it is exponential. it depends on the nature of volatility and how your dampen it. sometimes you truly make risk smaller without increasing tail risk.
I'm new to your columns. Have you written on why you are a Bayesian and what it means? I'd appreciate reading that.
thank you! I have. i also did a podcast on it. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/938580499 and my thanksgiving newsletter.