8 Comments
May 28Liked by Allison Schrager

Hail the return of risk. Now if only more people only understood what it means, what it looks like in different arenas, and how it manifests.

Expand full comment

We always find out later

Expand full comment

A related question I cannot answer is whether the expansion of private markets for investment erode the efficiency implied by the efficient market hypothesis.

.

Expand full comment

… and the less efficient market contributes to the (hopefully) higher returns.

Expand full comment

Not surprised college grads want stability. Look at what they have lived through over their high school and college years. And the media narrative that pounds on the fear, conflict, doom drums all day doesn’t help them (or the rest of us) see that there is good and opportunity and reason for hope too.

Expand full comment

Most of the decay in the US economy comes from a breakdown in social cohesion. You could argue this has come from decades of low interest rates but I think that's really a symptom (along with the explosion in administration) rather than a root cause.

Expand full comment

Unless you can force private equity or credit to be forthcoming (only a few major sophisticated investors are in that position), then they are pretty scary things for a small investor like me. I doubt we would get the low fee version either.

The two most dangerous words in finance are "Trust me". Public companies can have frauds, but there is still a lot of publicly disgorged info to help figure things out. Enrons are pretty rare. Even in the financial crisis, it was derivatives etc. that were traded in back rooms that were the main weapons of mass destruction. The companies with simple straightforward finances and decent business models generally weathered the storm.

As a retiree with a significant portfolio, I cannot conceive of investing it in private equity/credit. I subscribe to Groucho Marx's maxim that he wouldn't belong to a club that would have him as a member.

Expand full comment

Only barbers and dentists have job stability. Otherwise, job stability is like low volatility in the stock market; it is low volatility until it is not, and it always becomes volatile at some point.

My advice to young staff over the years has been for them to constantly work on their skills and say yes to opportunities. If they don't think they can find another job for the same or better pay, HR probably thinks that as well and their job may be unstable. I worked for decades in consulting. Even as a senior respected person, you are still only as good as the past month. Thinking your job is stable makes it unstable. It is the super-micro version of Minsky's adage that stability breeds instability.

Expand full comment