Southern New England! Read how Mark Twain, speaking through his Connecticut Yankee protagonist, describes Bridgeport, the Palo Alto of its day. Then look at Bridgeport today. It's been a wild ride. No wonder people don't want to listen to economists. They should, but they don't.
Couldn’t agree more (not that my background and education qualifies me to have an opinion on economics). That being said, politics is about a narrative and the leadership class has lost control of the narrative. How do they get it back?
I was wondering that myself. Hopefully this, plus people seeing wage growth under free trade will help shift the easier let’s blame neoliberalism narratives
Most don’t read The NY Times or Wall Street Journal. Doesn’t matter what you say when no one is listening. Have to figure out a way to take the discussion to the places they are.
That's a good point. You would think that those who work in industries that rely on export-driven profit or rely on key inputs from overseas would get the importance of mostly free trade. Although, you could see why a lot of people are against free trade when it contributed to the hollowing out of specific jobs and industries. If they have good, meaningful paying jobs you don't need a persuasive narrative too.
I didn’t think this when I was younger, but now with decades of hindsight I believe that it is a truly Exceptional Person who learns from history and the experience of others. The overwhelming majority of American citizens learn only from personal experience.
Seems more complicated than that. China put up a fence against imports and while they may pay later, they sure as heck became much wealthier much more quickly than anyone saw coming.
In the US we find ourselves dependent on China and others in a variety of industries and technologies related to defense and pharma among many others that are core to the US. Thus, some controls would seem to be rational, even if not the most efficient economically. Here of course the how becomes critical, I'll leave it to you to describe the mess the Administration is leaving us here.
Allison, this post should be understood as an accurate forecast on your part. Since publication, the administration has walked back its Powell comments, reached out to allies (rhetorically at least), and opened the door on an arrangement with China. The dollar and rates have stabilized, gold has probably peaked, and equities are rallying. While I'm an optimist probably to a fault, I can't help but think that some sort of turn is happening on Trump's rhetoric and even policy. Back to normal? Game on again? Let's hope...keep them coming Allison!
Nice "origin story" about why you became an economist. Mine woud be hearing my mother telling about the Great Depression that started when she was 20 and cut short her time in university, and her not being able to answer my question, "But where did all the money go?".
I don't understand why you economists also talk about Smoot Hawley but NEVER Fordney or even better Dingley? Facts are we graduated from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing powerhouse under after the Dingley tariffs, in fact we became the largest economy of the world, while the Brits, who stayed true to free trade, fell away.
What did Ken Rogoff say around 2022? When I search (using Perplexity) I get this:
"Ken Rogoff did not claim that government spending is harmless in any amount or that it would never cause inflation or higher interest rates. Around 2022, he was warning that the combination of pandemic-era stimulus and shifting global trends was increasing inflationary pressures, and that central banks like the Fed would need to raise rates to respond. His position was nuanced: while fiscal and monetary expansion may be justified in a crisis, there are clear limits, and ignoring those limits could have significant macroeconomic consequences."
Southern New England! Read how Mark Twain, speaking through his Connecticut Yankee protagonist, describes Bridgeport, the Palo Alto of its day. Then look at Bridgeport today. It's been a wild ride. No wonder people don't want to listen to economists. They should, but they don't.
I was born in a hospital in New Bedford, MA. Whaling was long gone by then and so were the textiles that they’d pivoted to.
100% agree about the 100 year reminder cycle. Everyone who learned the lessons aren’t there to tell you about them.
Couldn’t agree more (not that my background and education qualifies me to have an opinion on economics). That being said, politics is about a narrative and the leadership class has lost control of the narrative. How do they get it back?
I was wondering that myself. Hopefully this, plus people seeing wage growth under free trade will help shift the easier let’s blame neoliberalism narratives
Most don’t read The NY Times or Wall Street Journal. Doesn’t matter what you say when no one is listening. Have to figure out a way to take the discussion to the places they are.
That's a good point. You would think that those who work in industries that rely on export-driven profit or rely on key inputs from overseas would get the importance of mostly free trade. Although, you could see why a lot of people are against free trade when it contributed to the hollowing out of specific jobs and industries. If they have good, meaningful paying jobs you don't need a persuasive narrative too.
Trying to give the losers a soft landing has always been a challenge.
I didn’t think this when I was younger, but now with decades of hindsight I believe that it is a truly Exceptional Person who learns from history and the experience of others. The overwhelming majority of American citizens learn only from personal experience.
Seems more complicated than that. China put up a fence against imports and while they may pay later, they sure as heck became much wealthier much more quickly than anyone saw coming.
In the US we find ourselves dependent on China and others in a variety of industries and technologies related to defense and pharma among many others that are core to the US. Thus, some controls would seem to be rational, even if not the most efficient economically. Here of course the how becomes critical, I'll leave it to you to describe the mess the Administration is leaving us here.
Allison, this post should be understood as an accurate forecast on your part. Since publication, the administration has walked back its Powell comments, reached out to allies (rhetorically at least), and opened the door on an arrangement with China. The dollar and rates have stabilized, gold has probably peaked, and equities are rallying. While I'm an optimist probably to a fault, I can't help but think that some sort of turn is happening on Trump's rhetoric and even policy. Back to normal? Game on again? Let's hope...keep them coming Allison!
Nice "origin story" about why you became an economist. Mine woud be hearing my mother telling about the Great Depression that started when she was 20 and cut short her time in university, and her not being able to answer my question, "But where did all the money go?".
I don't understand why you economists also talk about Smoot Hawley but NEVER Fordney or even better Dingley? Facts are we graduated from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing powerhouse under after the Dingley tariffs, in fact we became the largest economy of the world, while the Brits, who stayed true to free trade, fell away.
What did Ken Rogoff say around 2022? When I search (using Perplexity) I get this:
"Ken Rogoff did not claim that government spending is harmless in any amount or that it would never cause inflation or higher interest rates. Around 2022, he was warning that the combination of pandemic-era stimulus and shifting global trends was increasing inflationary pressures, and that central banks like the Fed would need to raise rates to respond. His position was nuanced: while fiscal and monetary expansion may be justified in a crisis, there are clear limits, and ignoring those limits could have significant macroeconomic consequences."
This is an exceptionally well reasoned and written post.
So cogent. So well put. Will you run for office please? 🙏