“and we divert capital away from the most productive uses.”
I agree, the entire green new deal exercise, and now the reshoring exercise, both feel like a colossal waste of time and energy. It feels like we are retreading ground from a century ago, or more.
The political will to do something productive just isn’t there.
Framing it as a matter of “uncertainty” makes it seem like things can be resolved any day now. But this is an iterated game and the US and its trading partners presumably plan on still existing in a few decades. A better framing is “credibility” or “reputation.”
Now the world knows the US has an overpowered presidency and a population that will elect populists to said presidency. Even if we suddenly started acting reasonably again, our word isn’t worth as much. The smart move for other governments is long term disengagement to reduce exposure.
Unfortunately I think you're right, and the sooner the rest of the world stands up to Trump and isolates the US the sooner we can have some introspection on getting both parties back to some sanity. I hope that doesn't mean world wars to get there but history is rhyming with the Depression/WWII period.
Voters refuse to consider anyone that doesn't pander to them and feed them BS that makes them feel good. Kind of like childish emotional vampires, feeding their emotions on BS. We need a 3rd party for rational responsible adults. Probably no hope for wide acceptance, but might be able to influence things on the margins. So what should be our childish hat & bumper sticker slogan?
So "Liberation Day(s)" are here and the whole pile of pro Trump economics, business & financial writers have disappeared as they can't defend or even model the chaos of the last 30 days..
this is GFC & Covid on crack.. its like a daily TARP vote..
We have a "Negative Gamma" sell into a declines which is blasting our global financial economics, economy, business environment. We are stuck in "Buy the truth and sell the news" is our real world facts.. stuck in recession all man made...
Everyone knows this is demolishing earnings projections for 20,000 public trading companies, top 10,000 private firms in the world. These 30,000 firms are earth..These firms are 90% of earnings, 90% corporate taxes, 85% of trade, 90% of private R&D, 90% CapX, 85% technology spending, 90% Industrial investment, 60% of employees..
As these 30,000 firms cut their earning projections, hiring, investment, trade, taxes.. this will smash $10 trillions out of the global economy.
Then the largest 1000 banks & 5000 financial firms in the world which drive $100s of trillions of financial flows across equities, credit, currency, trade, payments, swaps, financial products, pensions, funds, etc.. they are very sensitive to massive change and will reduce $10s of trillions of transactions which will blast their balance sheets
This is "man made" train wreck recession but the hard right & pro Trump wing are stuck as they have zero answers as team Trump is blowing up the global economy..
Outside of all of this everything is great.. can't wait to see the pro Trump & hard right defense of this in their economics & financial opinion pieces..
For some strange reason I'm starting to feel better about all of this. No, one man can't reorder the American economy. Yes, courts will temper Executive authority that isn't constitutional. And yes, Congressional Republicans will find their souls. We've won the competition of ideas, we've grown faster than our competitors, and we're not going to throw away enormous achievements and somehow become Peronists just because Trump says so. lol, thanks for listening, I needed to say that.
I hope you’re right, but I’ve heard that the tariffs are constitutional since the trade act of 1974 allows executive action against unfair foreign trade practices.
“and we divert capital away from the most productive uses.”
I agree, the entire green new deal exercise, and now the reshoring exercise, both feel like a colossal waste of time and energy. It feels like we are retreading ground from a century ago, or more.
The political will to do something productive just isn’t there.
Framing it as a matter of “uncertainty” makes it seem like things can be resolved any day now. But this is an iterated game and the US and its trading partners presumably plan on still existing in a few decades. A better framing is “credibility” or “reputation.”
Now the world knows the US has an overpowered presidency and a population that will elect populists to said presidency. Even if we suddenly started acting reasonably again, our word isn’t worth as much. The smart move for other governments is long term disengagement to reduce exposure.
Unfortunately I think you're right, and the sooner the rest of the world stands up to Trump and isolates the US the sooner we can have some introspection on getting both parties back to some sanity. I hope that doesn't mean world wars to get there but history is rhyming with the Depression/WWII period.
Interesting read
Voters refuse to consider anyone that doesn't pander to them and feed them BS that makes them feel good. Kind of like childish emotional vampires, feeding their emotions on BS. We need a 3rd party for rational responsible adults. Probably no hope for wide acceptance, but might be able to influence things on the margins. So what should be our childish hat & bumper sticker slogan?
So "Liberation Day(s)" are here and the whole pile of pro Trump economics, business & financial writers have disappeared as they can't defend or even model the chaos of the last 30 days..
this is GFC & Covid on crack.. its like a daily TARP vote..
We have a "Negative Gamma" sell into a declines which is blasting our global financial economics, economy, business environment. We are stuck in "Buy the truth and sell the news" is our real world facts.. stuck in recession all man made...
Everyone knows this is demolishing earnings projections for 20,000 public trading companies, top 10,000 private firms in the world. These 30,000 firms are earth..These firms are 90% of earnings, 90% corporate taxes, 85% of trade, 90% of private R&D, 90% CapX, 85% technology spending, 90% Industrial investment, 60% of employees..
As these 30,000 firms cut their earning projections, hiring, investment, trade, taxes.. this will smash $10 trillions out of the global economy.
Then the largest 1000 banks & 5000 financial firms in the world which drive $100s of trillions of financial flows across equities, credit, currency, trade, payments, swaps, financial products, pensions, funds, etc.. they are very sensitive to massive change and will reduce $10s of trillions of transactions which will blast their balance sheets
This is "man made" train wreck recession but the hard right & pro Trump wing are stuck as they have zero answers as team Trump is blowing up the global economy..
Outside of all of this everything is great.. can't wait to see the pro Trump & hard right defense of this in their economics & financial opinion pieces..
For some strange reason I'm starting to feel better about all of this. No, one man can't reorder the American economy. Yes, courts will temper Executive authority that isn't constitutional. And yes, Congressional Republicans will find their souls. We've won the competition of ideas, we've grown faster than our competitors, and we're not going to throw away enormous achievements and somehow become Peronists just because Trump says so. lol, thanks for listening, I needed to say that.
I hope you’re right, but I’ve heard that the tariffs are constitutional since the trade act of 1974 allows executive action against unfair foreign trade practices.